The dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice over the past several summers has generated great interest and concern in the scientific community and among the public. Here, APL-UW polar scientists present their research on the current state of Arctic sea ice. A long-term, downward trend in sea ice volume is clear.

They also describe how the many observations they gather are used to improve computer simulations of global climate that, in turn, help us to asses the impacts of a future state of diminished sea ice cover in the Arctic.

This movie presentation was first seen on the March 2012 edition of UW|360, the monthly University of Washington Television news magazine.

The Arctic Ocean is a repository for a tremendous amount of river runoff, especially from several huge Russian rivers. During the spring of 2008, APL-UW oceanographers on a hydrographic survey in the Arctic detected major shifts in the amount and distribution of fresh water. The Canada basin had freshened, but had the entire Arctic Ocean?

Analysis of satellite records shows that salinity increased on the Russian side of the Arctic and decreased in the Beaufort Sea on the Canadian side. With an Arctic-wide view of circulation from satellite sensors, researchers were able to determine that atmospheric forcing had shifted the transpolar drift counterclockwise and driven Russian runoff east to the Canada Basin.

This model study examines the impact of an intense early August cyclone on the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice extent. The cyclone passed when Arctic sea ice was thin and the simulated Arctic ice volume had already declined ~40% from the 2007–2011 mean. The thin sea ice pack and the presence of ocean heat in the near surface temperature maximum layer created conditions that made the ice particularly vulnerable to storms. During the storm, ice volume decreased about twice as fast as usual, owing largely to a quadrupling in bottom melt caused by increased upward ocean heat transport. This increased ocean heat flux was due to enhanced mixing in the oceanic boundary layer, driven by strong winds and rapid ice movement. A comparison with a sensitivity simulation driven by reduced wind speeds during the cyclone indicates that cyclone-enhanced bottom melt strongly reduces ice extent for about two weeks, with a declining effect afterwards. The simulated Arctic sea ice extent minimum in 2012 is reduced by the cyclone, but only by 0.15 x 10⁶ km² (4.4%). Thus without the storm, 2012 would still have produced a record minimum.

Results from a numerical model simulation show significant changes in the dynamic properties of Arctic sea ice during 2007–2011 compared to the 1979–2006 mean. These changes are linked to a 33% reduction in sea ice volume, with decreasing ice concentration, mostly in the marginal seas, and decreasing ice thickness over the entire Arctic, particularly in the western Arctic. The decline in ice volume results in a 37% decrease in ice mechanical strength and 31% in internal ice interaction force, which in turn leads to an increase in ice speed (13%) and deformation rates (17%). The increasing ice speed has the tendency to drive more ice out of the Arctic. However, ice volume export is reduced because the rate of decrease in ice thickness is greater than the rate of increase in ice speed, thus retarding the decline of Arctic sea ice volume. Ice deformation increases the most in fall and least in summer. Thus the effect of changes in ice deformation on the ice cover is likely strong in fall and weak in summer. The increase in ice deformation boosts ridged ice production in parts of the central Arctic near the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland in winter and early spring, but the average ridged ice production is reduced because less ice is available for ridging in most of the marginal seas in fall. The overall decrease in ridged ice production contributes to the demise of thicker, older ice. As the ice cover becomes thinner and weaker, ice motion approaches a state of free drift in summer and beyond and is therefore more susceptible to changes in wind forcing. This is likely to make seasonal or shorter-term forecasts of sea ice edge locations more challenging.

The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4), run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO₂ and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2°C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO₂. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO₂ doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation.

Six AOMIP model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008), airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009), ice-draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea (1992- 2008) and from submarines (1975-2000), drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than ~2 m and underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about ~2 m. In the regions of flat immobile land-fast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than four times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast-ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast-ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generates ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

Recent drastic reduction of the older perennial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has resulted in a vast expansion of younger and saltier seasonal sea ice. This increase in the salinity of the overall ice cover could impact tropospheric chemical processes. Springtime perennial ice extent in 2008 and 2009 broke the half-century record minimum in 2007 by about one million km2. In both years seasonal ice was dominant across the Beaufort Sea extending to the Amundsen Gulf, where significant field and satellite observations of sea ice, temperature, and atmospheric chemicals have been made. Measurements at the site of the Canadian Coast Guard Ship Amundsen ice breaker in the Amundsen Gulf showed events of increased bromine monoxide (BrO), coupled with decreases of ozone (O3) and gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), during cold periods in March 2008. The timing of the main event of BrO, O3, and GEM changes was found to be consistent with BrO observed by satellites over an extensive area around the site. Furthermore, satellite sensors detected a doubling of atmospheric BrO in a vortex associated with a spiral rising air pattern. In spring 2009, excessive and widespread bromine explosions occurred in the same region while the regional air temperature was low and the extent of perennial ice was significantly reduced compared to the case in 2008. Using satellite observations together with a Rising-Air-Parcel model, we discover a topographic control on BrO distribution such that the Alaskan North Slope and the Canadian Shield region were exposed to elevated BrO, whereas the surrounding mountains isolated the Alaskan interior from bromine intrusion.

The Community Climate System Model, version 4 has revisions across all components. For sea ice, the most notable improvements are the incorporation of a new shortwave radiative transfer scheme and the capabilities that this enables. This scheme uses inherent optical properties to define scattering and absorption characteristics of snow, ice, and included shortwave absorbers and explicitly allows for melt ponds and aerosols. The deposition and cycling of aerosols in sea ice is now included, and a new parameterization derives ponded water from the surface meltwater flux. Taken together, this provides a more sophisticated, accurate, and complete treatment of sea ice radiative transfer. In preindustrial CO2 simulations, the radiative impact of ponds and aerosols on Arctic sea ice is 1.1 W m^-2 annually, with aerosols accounting for up to 8 W m^-2 of enhanced June shortwave absorption in the Barents and Kara Seas and with ponds accounting for over 10 W m^-2 in shelf regions in July. In double CO₂ (2XCO₂) simulations with the same aerosol deposition, ponds have a larger effect, whereas aerosol effects are reduced, thereby modifying the surface albedo feedback. Although the direct forcing is modest, because aerosols and ponds influence the albedo, the response is amplified. In simulations with no ponds or aerosols in sea ice, the Arctic ice is over 1 m thicker and retains more summer ice cover. Diagnosis of a twentieth-century simulation indicates an increased radiative forcing from aerosols and melt ponds, which could play a role in twentieth-century Arctic sea ice reductions. In contrast, ponds and aerosol deposition have little effect on Antarctic sea ice for all climates considered.

Recent warming and freshening of the Canada Basin has led to the year-round storage of solar radiation as the near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM). Using year-round ocean (from ice tethered profilers and autonomous ocean flux buoys), sea-ice (from ice mass balance buoys), and atmosphere (from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) data from 2005–2010, we find that heat from the NSTM is entrained into the surface mixed layer (SML) during winter. Entrainment can only occur when the base of the SML reaches the top of the NSTM. If this condition is met, the surface forcing and stratification together determine whether the SML deepens into the NSTM. Heat transfer occurs by diffusion or by the erosion of the summer halocline. The average temperature of the SML warmed by as much as 0.06°C during storm events. Solar radiation began warming the SML about 1 month early during the winter of 2007–2008 and this can be explained by thin sea ice.

The first quasi-synoptic estimates of Arctic Ocean and sea ice net fluxes of volume, heat and freshwater are calculated by application of an inverse model to data around the ocean boundary. Hydrographic measurements from four gateways to the Arctic (Bering, Davis, and Fram Straits and the Barents Sea Opening) completely enclose the ocean, and were made within the same 32-day period in summer 2005. The inverse model is formulated as a set of full-depth and density-layer-specific volume and salinity transport conservation equations, with conservation constraints also applied to temperature, but only in non-outcropping layers. The model includes representations of Fram Strait sea ice export and of interior Arctic Ocean diapycnal fluxes.

The results show that in summer 2005 the transport-weighted mean properties are, for water entering the Arctic: potential temperature 4.49°C, salinity 34.50 and potential density 27.34 kg m^-3; and for water leaving the Arctic, including sea ice: 0.25°C, 33.81, and 27.13 kg m^-3, respectively. The net effect of the Arctic in summer is to freshen and cool the inflows by 0.69 in salinity and 4.23°C, respectively, and to decrease density by 0.21 kg m^-3. The volume transport into the Arctic of waters above ~1000 m depth is 9.2 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m³ s^-1), and the export (similarly) is 9.3 Sv. The net oceanic and sea ice freshwater flux is 187 ± 48 mSv. The net heat flux (including sea ice) is 189 ± 37 TW, representing loss from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High — a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure — which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content.

Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

A numerical model is used to investigate the time and space extent of the near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM) of the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean over the years 2000%u20132009. The NSTM is formed from local summertime absorption of solar radiation which, in some circumstances, descends through the fall and early winter to form a warm subsurface layer just below the winter mixed layer. We find that winter survival of this layer is confined largely to the Beaufort Gyre of the Canadian Basin, where Ekman convergence and downwelling push the summer warm layer down below the winter mixing depth. In recent years, summer stratification has increased, downwelling has accelerated, and the NSTM has warmed as the sea ice cover in the Beaufort Gyre has thinned. The result is a strengthening NSTM which contained enough heat by the end of winter 2007/2008 to melt about 20 cm of sea ice. Northwest of Alaska the model also simulates a second, deeper temperature maximum layer that forms from advection of saltier summer Pacific water. However, this layer is difficult to adequately resolve and maintain given the model's resolution.